I hope you all got through this weekend's cold snap mostly unscathed. Unfortunately, for flowers that survived, right now the models look brutal for blossom blight infection events and management decisions. As of tonight (March 29, 2026) warmer temperatures are predicted for the second half of the week and while not complete washout days, rain is also predicted for several days heading into and over the Easter weekend. Please see blossom blight infection risks for apple production areas throughout NC below. Keep in mind that it's not possible for me to run individual reports for every orchard so please check NEWA weather stations nearest to you and contact me with any questions. Also, the weekly disease management post may be delayed by a day this week due to travel for work but I'll still try my best to get it to you on Monday (March 30, 2026).

The EIP model is predicting a High Risk for blossom blight infection on March 31 and April 1, 2026 and is predicting a Blossom Blight Infection Event April 2 and 3, 2026. I would not be too concerned about the high risk for infection on March 31st as the EIP is well below 100. This simply indicates that the epiphytic Erwinia amylovora populations have not rebounded from the cold weather this weekend. However, the potential infection event on April 1st should grasp your attention and of course you'll want to get streptomycin applied for the predicted blossom blight infections on Thursday and Friday. A few thoughts:

• If you applied strep on Friday (March 27th) you're not protected for April 1st or beyond.
• If you apply strep on March 30th, you'll only knock back the epiphytic populations back slightly on April 1st and a blossom blight infection is still predicted for April 2 and 3.
• If you apply strep on March 31st, you knock the risk back to "high" for April 2nd. However, you may need to reapply strep on April 3rd as another infection is still predicted. If strapped for time, I'd focus the April 3rd application to blocks where you've had fire blight issues in the past, younger high density blocks, and in the most susceptible cultivars including but not limited to 'Evercrisp', 'Gala', and 'Pink Lady'.

The EIP model is predicting a High Risk for blossom blight infection on March 30, 2026, and Blossom Blight Infection Events March 31-April 3, 2026. When I moved to the South, I was quickly acquainted with the phrase, "Bless your heart" and I cannot think of a more appropriate situation for that expression right now. Certainly you cannot be spraying streptomycin daily or every other day to get through the predicted infection events this week. I've tinkered some with the strep dates in NEWA, and I think the best course of action is the following:

• If you applied strep on Friday (March 27th), you're not protected from April 1st or beyond.
• I'd consider applying your first application of strep this week on March 31st. You could get by with the 100 ppm rate, but you may want to apply the 200 ppm rate for kickback activity against the "high risk" day predicted on March 30th. Applying on the 31st will cover you for the 31st and 1st infection events. Then, following up on Friday, April 3rd, with a high rate of strep (200 ppm). You should get some kickback activity for the infection event predicted on April 2nd, and you should be able to cover infections through the weekend.

The EIP model is predicting a Blossom Blight Infection Event on March 31 and April 1, 2026 and is predicting a High Risk for blossom blight infection on April 2 and 3, 2026. The only condition not present for an actual infection on April 2nd or 3rd is a wetting event. Thus, if you make a pesticide application, there is heavy dew, or you get an unexpected rain shower, you may want to protect your flowers.

• If you applied strep on Friday (March 27th) you should be protected for the March 31st infection but not beyond.
• If you apply strep on March 30th, you are covered for the March 31st infection, but blossoms may still be susceptible to infection on April 1st according to the EIP model. That said, I would feel pretty confident that you'll get at least 48 hours of control from strep.
• According to the EIP model, you will get the best bang for your buck by applying strep on March 31st. Applying on the 31st (consider the 200 ppm rate) will cover you for the 31st, 1st, and 2nd infections. There is still a high risk on April 3rd, but if there are no wetting events you may get by without reapplying an antibiotic. That said, stay tuned for midway through the week when we have a better idea on the weekend forecast.

The EIP model is predicting a Blossom Blight Infection Event on April 1, 2026 and is predicting a High Risk for blossom blight infection on March 31, April 2 and 3, 2026. The only condition not present for an actual infection on April 2nd or 3rd is a wetting event. Thus, if you make a pesticide application, there is heavy dew, or you get an unexpected rain shower, you may want to protect your flowers.

• If you applied strep on Friday (March 27th) you should be protected through March 31st.
• If you apply strep on March 30th, according to the EIP model, flowers will still susceptible to infection on April 1st. That said, I would feel pretty confident that you'll get at least 48 hours of control from strep.
• If you apply strep on March 31st, you knock back the epiphytic bacteria populations (EIP less than 100) enough for April 1st. However, EIP values soar back by April 2nd and 3rd. Consider another strep application on April 2nd if you plan on making any pesticide applications, there is a heavy dew, or if rain comes into the forecast for Thursday and/or Friday.

The EIP model is predicting a Blossom Blight Infection Event on April 1, 2026 and is predicting a High Risk for blossom blight infection on March 31, April 2 and 3, 2026. I would not be too concerned about the high risk for infection on March 31st as the EIP is well below 100. This simply indicates that the epiphytic Erwinia amylovora populations have not rebounded from the cold weather this weekend. The only condition not present for an actual infection on April 2nd or 3rd is a wetting event. Thus, if you make a pesticide application, there is heavy dew, or you get an unexpected rain shower, you may want to protect your flowers.

• If you applied strep on Friday (March 27th) you are not protected for the April 1st infection event.
• If you apply strep on March 30th, according to the EIP model, flowers will still susceptible to infection on April 1st. That said, I would feel fairly confident that you'll get at least 48 hours of control from strep.
• If you apply strep on March 31st, you knock back the epiphytic bacteria populations (EIP less than 100) enough for April 1st. However, EIP values soar back by April 2nd and 3rd. Consider another strep application on April 2nd if you plan on making any pesticide applications, there is a heavy dew, or if rain comes into the forecast for Thursday and/or Friday.